Since the Kigali Amendment took effect in China, the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) have been brought under a quota management system. Under the compliance schedule, China must freeze HFCs production and consumption at baseline levels and then phase them down. This policy is profoundly reshaping the supply-demand structure of the domestic refrigerant market.

Supply of high-GWP refrigerants tightens

Under quota constraints, high-GWP types such as R404A (GWP 3922) and R507 (GWP 3985) face the most significant restrictions. Because companies prefer to produce higher-value products per unit of quota, the market supply of these traditional low-temperature fluids is structurally shrinking and their price center has clearly moved up versus previous years.

R410A (GWP 2088) and R134a (GWP 1430), as the main fluids for A/C and automotive sectors, have rigid demand and are difficult to fully replace in the short term; the game between supply and demand widens their price volatility. For large-volume buyers, locking in long-term supply agreements and building reasonable safety stock has become an important means to control procurement cost.

Low-GWP substitution accelerates

In contrast, low-GWP fluids are spreading rapidly. R32 (GWP 675) has become the mainstream choice for residential A/C thanks to its excellent efficiency and relatively mild flammability; R290 (GWP only 3) is rapidly penetrating heat pumps and small commercial refrigeration, is not subject to HFCs quotas, and has outstanding long-term sustainability.

Recommendations for downstream users

  • For existing R22 systems, prioritize an R407C retrofit to maximize reuse of the original compressor and heat exchangers at the lowest cost
  • For new residential and light-commercial A/C projects, adopt R32 directly for efficiency, cost and long-term compliance
  • For low-temperature cold-chain systems within the equipment renewal cycle, evaluate medium-GWP alternatives such as R448A/R449A, or consider a CO₂ cascade solution
  • For bulk buyers, sign an annual framework agreement with suppliers to stabilize supply channels and price expectations

Anhui Kaierwen Refrigeration Technology Co., Ltd. will continue to track policy trends and market changes, providing customers with timely refrigerant selection advice and stable supply assurance. For the latest quotes and stock of each model, please contact us at any time.